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MiSoC Workshop on Subjective Expectations and Probabilities in Economics and Psychology

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The ESRC Centre for Microsocial Change (MiSoc) and the Inter-University Centre on Risk, Economic Policies, and Employment (CIRPÉE) and the Centre for Decision Research of Leeds University are holding a Workshop on Subjective Expectations and Probabilities in Economics and Psychology on March 27-28 2014 at the Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, UK.

The workshop will bring together researchers from the field of Economics and Psychology analyzing subjective expectations and subjective probabilities in their work. Topics include issues related to measurement, expectations formation, use of expectations in econometric models and substantive applications.

Keynote speakers will be Charles Manski (Northwestern University) and Baruch Fischhoff (Carnegie Mellon University).

The event is organised by Charles Bellemare (Laval University), Wandi Bruine de Bruin (Leeds University) and Adeline Delavande (University of Essex).

Download the full programme here

List of participants


The workshop will take place in the Tony Rich Teaching Centre. See the map. Presentations will be in room TC2-12/13. Posters session and coffee/lunch breaks will be in room TC2-8/9.

The workshop dinner will be at Wivenhoe House.

Note to presenters Please check the duration of your talk in the program as we have various formats. Please allow 5 minutes for discussion within your allotted time slot.


Cognitive Ability, Expectations, and Beliefs about the Future: Psychological Influences on Retirement Decisions Andrew Parker, Leandro Carvalho and Susann Rohwedder, University of Michigan

Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification L. Bissonnette, CIRPEE, Netsparz, J. de Bresser, University of Groningen

Eliciting Uncertainty Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University

Communicating uncertainty in official economic statistics Charles Manski, Northwestern University

How Does Investor Confidence Lead to Trading? Theory and Evidence on the Links between Investor Return Experiences, Confidence, and Investment Beliefs Dr. Arvid O. I. Hoffmann, Maastricht University

Benefits to elite schools and the formation of expected returns to education: Evidence from Mexico City Jérémie Gignoux, Paris School of Economics

Preferences and Biases in Educational Choices and Labor Market Expectations: Shrinking the Black Box of Gender Ernesto Reuben, Columbia University and IZA; Matthew Wiswall, Arizona State University; Basit Zafar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

University Choice: The Role of Expected Earnings, Non-pecuniary Outcomes and Financial Constraints. Adeline Delavande, University of Essex and Basit Zafar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations using Subjective Expectations Data (Preliminary): Peter Arcidiacono,  V. Joseph Hotzy, Arnaud Maurelz, Teresa Romano. Duke University and NBER

Individual uncertainty on longevity B. Dormonty, A.-L. Samsonz, M. Fleurbaey, S. Luchini, E. Schokkaert, C. Thébaut, C. Van de Voorde, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine,


The ESRC Research Centre on Micro-social Change (MISOC), the Inter-University Centre on Risk, Economic Policies, and Employment (CIRPÉE), the Centre for Decision Research at the University of Leeds, as well as the International Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP), Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE) and The International Confederation for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics and Economic Psychology (ICABEEP)

Workshop website

How to reach the University of Essex

By train: Take a train from London Liverpool Street Station to Colchester Station (train journey is roughly an hour), from where you can take a cab to University of Essex, North Towers car park (30 minutes cab ride). By air: From London Stansted Airport, take National Express bus to Colchester (about 60 minutes) or take bus 133 (about 110 minutes). If arriving at any other London airport, use London transport to get to London Liverpool Street Station, from where you can use the train following the instructions above (Note: London City Airport is very convenient).

Suggested accommodations include Wivenhoe House on campus, the Rose and Crown in Colchester or the George Hotel in Colchester

Details on trains schedule and prices You can also pre-book a taxi service from all airports to Colchester. Suggested companies include: Airport Express 01206 251122 Stanway travel 01206 738244 Terry Ager 01206 547833. Colchester Airport Services 01206 729927 or 07900 252 452

Please contact Janice Webb at if you come by car to get a parking permit.

How to claim expenses

Those of you who can claim expenses back should fill out the two forms Expenses and International Bank Account Details and mail them, along with receipts, to: Kim Bones Institute for Social & Economic Research University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK, CO4 3SQ