The impact of Brexit on financial expectations and behaviours


This paper investigates the impact of the EU referendum outcome on individuals’ expectations about the future and their savings behaviour. We treat the Brexit vote as an unexpected information shock and compare within a difference-in-difference setting individuals interviewed before and after the referendum date. The results show that the referendum outcome led to an adjustment of expectations about the future financial situation differently by Brexit support status. For leave supporters, the EU Referendum result had a positive impact on their personal future financial and employment expectations, while the opposite was true for remain supporters. Furthermore, we find tentative evidence that ‘leavers’ increased their monthly saving amount by more than ‘remainers’. If sustained in the longer run, this could imply long-term shifts in financial outcomes between the two groups.


Dr Birgitta Rabe, Senior Research Fellow, ISER, University of Essex
Bernhard Schmidpeter, Senior Research Officer, ISER, University of Essex