Buying a house, getting pregnant, investing, continuing education.. why and how do we make choices and how are they affected by our expectations and chances of success? Leading academics from the United States and Europe are joining ISER’s researchers for a major workshop at the University of Essex today.
The wide-ranging research presented looks at choices on continuing onto higher education, our decisions based of life expectancy, how investor confidence can affect trading behaviour, house prices and our reaction to the housing market, school choices, and teenage pregnancy rates and parental educational expectations, alongside other new research into individual choices and interpretation of chances.
Papers for discussion include
Subjective Return Expectations, Information and Stock Market Participation: Evidence from France� Luc Arrondely, CNRS-PSE-Banque de France, Hector Calvo-Pardoz, U. of Southampton, Derya Tasx U. of Southampton
Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification� L. Bissonnette, CIRPEE, Netsparz, J. de Bresser, University of Groningen
Cognitive Ability, Expectations, and Beliefs about the Future: Psychological Influences on Retirement Decisions Andrew Parker, Leandro Carvalho and Susann Rohwedder, University of Michigan
Eliciting Uncertainty Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University
Communicating uncertainty in official economic statistics Charles Manski, Northwestern University
How Does Investor Confidence Lead to Trading? Theory and Evidence on the Links between Investor Return Experiences, Confidence, and Investment Beliefs
Dr. Arvid O. I. Hoffmann, Maastricht University
Benefits to elite schools and the formation of expected returns to
education: Evidence from Mexico City
Jérémie Gignoux, Paris School of Economics
Preferences and Biases in Educational Choices and Labor Market Expectations:
Shrinking the Black Box of Gender Ernesto Reuben, Columbia University and IZA; Matthew Wiswall, Arizona State University; Basit Zafar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
University Choice: The Role of Expected Earnings, Non-pecuniary Outcomes and Financial Constraints. Adeline Delavande, University of Essex and Basit Zafar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations using Subjective Expectations Data (Preliminary): Peter Arcidiacono, � V. Joseph Hotzy, Arnaud Maurelz, Teresa Romano. Duke University and NBER
Individual uncertainty on longevity� B. Dormonty, A.-L. Samsonz, M. Fleurbaey, S. Luchini, E. Schokkaert, C. Thébaut, C. Van de Voorde, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine.
Using subjective survival expectations for policy analysis: the case of diagnosis of hypertension and smoking� Paul Andres Rodriguez-Lesme, UCL
The workshop will bring together researchers from the field of Economics and Psychology analyzing subjective expectations and subjective probabilities in their work. Topics include issues related to measurement, expectations formation, use of expectations in econometric models and substantive applications.
Keynote speakers will be Charles Manski (Northwestern University) and Baruch Fischhoff (Carnegie Mellon University).
The event is organised by Charles Bellemare (Laval University), Wandi Bruine de Bruin (Leeds University) and Adeline Delavande (University of Essex).
Download the full programme here
Sponsors
The ESRC Research Centre on Micro-social Change (MISOC), the Inter-University Centre on Risk, Economic Policies, and Employment (CIRPÉE), the Centre for Decision Research at the University of Leeds, as well as the International Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP), Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE) and The International Confederation for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics and Economic Psychology (ICABEEP)