Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: the case of the post-WWII baby boom

Publication type

Research Paper

Series Number

DP13374

Series

CEPR Discussion Paper Series

Authors

Publication date

December 15, 2018

Summary:

Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and CPS 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross-state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on completed fertility. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by postponing fertility and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. Differences in volatility account for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation observed during the post WWII baby boom

Subjects

Link

https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=13374

#525506

---

Related Publications

• Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: the case of the post-WWII baby boom

  1. Bastien Chabe-Ferret
  2. Paula E. Gobbi

  Media
  January 28, 2019

• Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: the case of the post-WWII baby boom

  1. Bastien Chabe-Ferret
  2. Paula E. Gobbi

  Media
  January 26, 2019

• Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: the case of the post-WWII baby boom

  1. Bastien Chabe-Ferret
  2. Paula E. Gobbi

  Research Paper
  July 15, 2018