Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: the case of the post-WWII baby boom

Publication type

Research Paper

Series Number

2018-19

Series

ECARES working Papers

Authors

Publication date

July 15, 2018

Summary:

Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and CPS 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross-state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on completed fertility. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by postponing fertility and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. Differences in volatility account for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation observed during the post WWII baby boom

Subjects

Link

https://ideas.repec.org/p/eca/wpaper/2013-274090.html

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