Skip to content

Research Paper ECARES working Papers 2018-19

Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: the case of the post-WWII baby boom

Authors

Publication date

Jul 2018

Summary

Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and CPS 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross-state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on completed fertility. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by postponing fertility and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. Differences in volatility account for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation observed during the post WWII baby boom

Subjects

Demography, Economics, Childbearing: Fertility, and Income Dynamics

Links

https://ideas.repec.org/p/eca/wpaper/2013-274090.html


Related publications

  1. Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: the case of the post-WWII baby boom

    Bastien Chabe-Ferret and Paula E. Gobbi

    1. Demography
    2. Economics
    3. Childbearing: Fertility
    4. Income Dynamics

#525404


Research home

Research home

News

Latest findings, new research

Publications search

Search all research by subject and author

Podcasts

Researchers discuss their findings and what they mean for society

Projects

Background and context, methods and data, aims and outputs

Events

Conferences, seminars and workshops

Survey methodology

Specialist research, practice and study

Taking the long view

ISER's annual report

Themes

Key research themes and areas of interest