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ISER Working Paper Series 2007-16

State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s

Authors

Publication date

18 Jul 2007

Abstract

This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in the UK aged
between 50 and the state pension age. We begin by examining the issue of duration
dependence, using standard duration models. We then use a fourth order Markov model to estimate quarterly transitions while allowing for potential endogeneity of initial conditions. The results reject exogeneity of initial conditions and show the importance of both duration dependence and state dependence. This implies there is the potential for any individual to become trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as an individual begins a period of non-employment.

Subjects

Older People and Welfare Benefits

Notes

working paper

Paper download  

#509602


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