ISER Working Paper Series 1994-27
Semi-Markov and Markov labour histories
It is possible to construct a panel of labour market flows from the first wave of the British Household Panel Study. Using this data, a three-state Markov model of labour market transitions is specified and estimated, using the proportional hazard function approach. The three states considered are unemployment, employment and self-employment. The purpose of this exercise is to illustrate how Markovian models can be used to identify the determinants of labour market flows. The sample used consists of mature males (25-55 years old) as this to a large extent eliminates the problems associated with non-participation. Specification tests reveal that the null hypothesis that an individuals labour market history can be described by a Markov process can not be rejected, and hence the time invariant hazard rates are used to evaluate the steady state proportions.
not held in Res Lib - bibliographic reference only