Publication type
CeMPA Working Paper Series
Series Number
CEMPA12/26
Authors
Publication date
October 30, 2026
Abstract:
National fiscal policy is designed and evaluated at the aggregate level, yet uniform tax benefit reforms interact with local socio-economic structures to produce heterogeneous place-based outcomes. This paper asks whether place-blind policies are place-neutral, using Greater Essex and its 14 districts as a case study of income inequality and fiscal redistribution across multiple geographical scales. We employ UKMOD, the UK tax benefit microsimulation model, calibrated to Greater Essex through machine-learning reweighting, to analyse the distribution of pre-existing inequality and the effects of the 2025-26 fiscal reforms. Theil decomposition shows that roughly 99 per cent of inequality in Greater Essex, for both market and disposable income, operates within districts rather than between them, consistent with comparative evidence for fine geographic partitions. Below the district, most inequality remains within neighbourhoods, down to postcode levels. The reforms leave this structure essentially unchanged; yet, they reduce poverty by less in Greater Essex than in England or the UK, and district-level reductions vary widely. Place-blind policy is approximately place-neutral in the structure of inequality but not in its poverty incidence, with direct implications for how geographic equity objectives are formulated and assessed.
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