Publication type
Journal Article
Authors
Publication date
March 15, 2024
Summary:
Fertility projections are vital to anticipate demand for maternity and childcare services, among other uses. Models typically use aggregate population-level data alone, ignoring the richness of individual-level data. We hence develop a Bayesian parity-specific projection model combining such data sources. We apply our method to England and Wales, using individual-level data from Understanding Society. Fitting generalised additive models gives smooth projections across age, cohort, and time since last birth. We also incorporate prior beliefs about the relative importance of the data sources. Our approach generates plausible forecasts by individual-level variables including educational qualification, despite their absence in the population-level data.
Published in
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)
Volume and page numbers
Volume: 73 , p.275 -297
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad095
ISSN
359254
Subjects
Notes
© The Royal Statistical Society 2023.
Open Access
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Download the syntax file to accompany this research
#568004