Policy uncertainty and information flows: evidence from pension reform expectations

Publication type

Journal Article

Authors

Publication date

January 15, 2023

Summary:

We examine how workers’ expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information availability and worker characteristics. Using newly collected data, we find that (1) expectations about reform are revised upward by about 10 percentage points in the year prior to a reform, from a median of 50%, regardless of whether the reform is announced; (2) expectations increase more the stronger the media activity about imminent reforms; (3) the effect of information on expectations varies systematically with characteristics that proxy cognitive ability and information value; (4) expectations do not converge as a result of reform announcements or implementations.

Published in

Economic Journal

Volume and page numbers

Volume: 133 , p.98 -129

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac050

ISSN

130133

Subjects

Notes

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.or g/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Open Access

© The Author(s) 2022.

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