June 1, 2011
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries
is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities
and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct
an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited
expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation
methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support
(predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our
results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design.
Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a
larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves
accuracy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Volume and page numbers
Volume: 26 , p.479 -497
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