Are Business Surveys Useful to Predict Firm Mortality?

Publication type

Conference Paper

Series

Comparative Analysis on Enterprises (Micro) Data Conference

Author

Publication date

August 6, 2000

Abstract:

In this work we estimate the death probability for an enterprise belonging to the Italian statistical register, covering the entire population, combining information from this statistical register and from a sample survey. We show that the problem of combining data observable for a sample and for the entire population may be viewed as a problem of missing covariates. We consider a likelihood based inference and in this context we review briefly the literature of regression analysis in presence of missing covariates. We use a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure. The likelihood for the mortality probability model, for the enterprises belonging to the sample, implies a zero mean condition on the score function. Using the information of the statistical register we add another moment condition in the GMM estimation, hence we combine the two data sources and increase the efficiency of the estimator.

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