Publication type
Journal Article
Authors
Publication date
June 1, 2009
Abstract:
The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of household subjective forecasts of personal finance. We use non-parametric directional analysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitative judgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are able to analyse a large number of individuals over a number of years. We also take into account individual characteristics such as gender, age, education and employment status when assessing their subjective forecasts. The paper extends the existing literature in two ways: the accuracy and usefulness of subjective forecasts, based on directional analysis, are assessed at the household level for the first time. Secondly, we adapt and extend the methods of directional analysis, which are applied to the household panel or longitudinal survey. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Published in
Journal of Forecasting
Volume
Volume: 28 (8):667-680
DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1114
Subject
Notes
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Originally 'Early View' 2 Dec.2008
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not held in Res Lib - bibliographic reference only
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