Financial expectations, consumption and saving: a microeconomic analysis

Publication type

Journal Article

Authors

Publication date

June 1, 2006

Abstract:

We explore the determinants of individuals’ financial expectations using data from the British Household Panel Survey, 1991-2003. Our findings suggest that individuals’ financial predictions are influenced by both the life cycle and the business cycle. We also investigate the extent to which the accuracy of past financial expectations affects current financial expectations. Regardless of the accuracy of the prediction, past financial optimism has a positive effect on current expectations formation whilst past financial pessimism has a negative effect. We also explore the relationship between financial realisations and expectations and we find that expectations tend to fall short of financial realisations. Finally, we investigate how financial expectations influence saving and consumption. Our findings suggest that financial optimism is inversely associated with saving and that current financial expectations serve to predict future consumption.

Published in

Fiscal Studies

Volume

Volume: 27 (3):313-338

Subject

Notes

Albert Sloman Library Periodicals *restricted to Univ. Essex registered users*

#508662

News

Latest findings, new research

Publications search

Search all research by subject and author

Podcasts

Researchers discuss their findings and what they mean for society

Projects

Background and context, methods and data, aims and outputs

Events

Conferences, seminars and workshops

Survey methodology

Specialist research, practice and study

Taking the long view

ISER's annual report

Themes

Key research themes and areas of interest