June 1, 2004
The paper presents a simple dynamic model of childbearing and housing demand incorporating imperfect fertility control, which suggests that early childbearing can have long-term effects on housing demand. An IV estimate of the effect of early childbearing on the probability of owner-occupation at age 30, based on information about miscarriages from the British Cohort Study 1970 data, indicates a large negative effect, and suggests that it is acceptable to treat the age-at-first-birth indicators as exogenous. Housing demand equations are estimated using data from the British Household Panel Survey 1991-2001, and these indicate that births early in adulthood substantially reduce housing demand later in life.
Journal of Housing Economics
Volume and page numbers
Volume: 13 (3):170-194 , p.170 -364