Research Paper Bank of England Staff Working Papers 808
Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt
This paper presents an approach to modelling the flow and the stock of mortgage debt, using loan-level data. Our approach allows us to consider different macroeconomic scenarios for the housing market, lenders’ and borrowers’ behaviour, and different calibrations of macroprudential policy interventions in a consistent way. This, in turn, allows us to take a forward-looking view about potential risks stemming from the distribution of mortgage debt, as well as assess the impact of potential macroprudential policies in a forward-looking manner.