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Journal Article

Using biomarkers to predict healthcare costs: evidence from a UK household panel

Authors

Publication date

Sep 2020

Summary

We investigate the extent to which healthcare service utilisation and costs can be predicted from biomarkers, using the UK Understanding Society panel. We use a sample of 2314 adults who reported no history of diagnosed long-lasting health conditions at baseline (2010/11), when biomarkers were collected. Five years later, their GP, outpatient (OP) and inpatient (IP) utilisation was observed. We develop an econometric technique for count data observed within ranges and a method of combining administrative reference cost data with the survey data without exact individual-level matching. Our composite biomarker index (allostatic load) is a powerful predictor of costs: for those with a baseline allostatic load of at least one standard deviation (1-s.d.) above mean, a 1-s.d. reduction reduces GP, OP and IP costs by around 18%.

Published in

Journal of Health Economics

Volume

73:102356

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102356

ISSN

16

Subjects

Economics, Health, Life Course Analysis, Social Stratification, and Biology

Notes

Open Access; Under a Creative Commons license


Related publications

  1. Baseline health and public healthcare costs five years on: a predictive analysis using biomarker data in a prospective household panel

    Apostolos Davillas and Stephen Pudney

    1. Economics
    2. Health
    3. Life Course Analysis
    4. Social Stratification
    5. Biology

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