Journal Article
Using biomarkers to predict healthcare costs: evidence from a UK household panel
Authors
Publication date
Sep 2020
Summary
We investigate the extent to which healthcare service utilisation and costs can be predicted from biomarkers, using the UK Understanding Society panel. We use a sample of 2314 adults who reported no history of diagnosed long-lasting health conditions at baseline (2010/11), when biomarkers were collected. Five years later, their GP, outpatient (OP) and inpatient (IP) utilisation was observed. We develop an econometric technique for count data observed within ranges and a method of combining administrative reference cost data with the survey data without exact individual-level matching. Our composite biomarker index (allostatic load) is a powerful predictor of costs: for those with a baseline allostatic load of at least one standard deviation (1-s.d.) above mean, a 1-s.d. reduction reduces GP, OP and IP costs by around 18%.
Published in
Journal of Health Economics
Volume
73:102356
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102356
ISSN
16
Subjects
Economics, Health, Life Course Analysis, Social Stratification, and Biology
Notes
Open Access; Under a Creative Commons license
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