Using biomarkers to predict healthcare costs: evidence from a UK household panel

Publication type

Journal Article

Authors

Publication date

September 15, 2020

Summary:

We investigate the extent to which healthcare service utilisation and costs can be predicted from biomarkers, using the UK Understanding Society panel. We use a sample of 2314 adults who reported no history of diagnosed long-lasting health conditions at baseline (2010/11), when biomarkers were collected. Five years later, their GP, outpatient (OP) and inpatient (IP) utilisation was observed. We develop an econometric technique for count data observed within ranges and a method of combining administrative reference cost data with the survey data without exact individual-level matching. Our composite biomarker index (allostatic load) is a powerful predictor of costs: for those with a baseline allostatic load of at least one standard deviation (1-s.d.) above mean, a 1-s.d. reduction reduces GP, OP and IP costs by around 18%.

Published in

Journal of Health Economics

Volume

Volume: 73:102356

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102356

ISSN

1676296

Subjects

Notes

Open Access

Under a Creative Commons license

#526181

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