The dynamics of party support for New Labour, 1991-2008
In this paper we show that, despite considerable dynamics in aggregate support for the Labour Party over the 1991-2008 waves of the British Household Panel Survey, the decision to move to and from supporting Labour was contemplated by only one third of the English sub-sample. An overwhelming majority of those whose support did not change over this period were averse to Labour. Extending recent work that employs discrete dynamic panel models to study party support, we model the dynamics of partisanship differentiating between stable and flexible Labour partisans. The propensity to be either a long-term Labour partisan or to change is a function of socio- demographics, and we find that New Labour appeared bereft of a core, stable constituency over the period where they won three consecutive mandates.