What will the housing market look like in 2040?
This research explores how the housing market is likely to change in the coming decades, and how this will affect poverty. Using detailed historic data to examine the relationship between housing and poverty, it provides a much greater insight into this link than most studies. It also explains how changes to housing policies and provision could prevent poverty increasing.
The research finds:
Private rents in England are forecast to rise by around 90 per cent in real terms between 2008 and 2040 – more than twice as fast as incomes. It predicts poverty rates among private renters could be as high as 53 per cent by 2040, compared to 43 per cent in 2008.
The decline in social renting and rise in private renting is likely to become more pronounced over the next few decades. Private renting is projected to grow to house one in five people in England by 2040, compared to one in six today. Social renting will house just one in ten by 2040, compared to one in seven today.
Poverty levels in England can only be contained if housing supply nearly doubles to 200,000 homes a year by 2040; social rents do not move closer to market rates and rises are limited to 1 per cent over inflation; Housing Benefit meets a similar proportion of rent as in 2008; and tenure patterns remain unchanged.