Research Paper Eurostat Methodologies and Working Papers
Using EUROMOD to nowcast poverty risk in the European Union
This paper explains how estimates of current (2012) income, risk-of-poverty and inequality (“nowcasts”) can be made using 2008 EU-SILC data and the European Union (EU) tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. The method is illustrated for eight EU countries, among those experiencing the most volatile economic conditions in the period of the projection (2007-2012): Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania. The method is evaluated by comparing results for 2008 to 2010 with statistics available from the EU-SILC corresponding to the same income reference periods. Nowcasts for 2011 and 2012 are also provided.