Measuring revisions to subjective expectations
This paper develops a new metric to measure revisions to subjective
expectations and proposes a survey design strategy that enables the
estimation of the metric. As an application, I analyze how women update
their ex pectations about the effectiveness of contraception methods.
The women interviewed exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the way they
revise their expectations with receipt of the same information. When
relating the heterogeneity in the updating process to observable
characteristics, I find that schooling, having a regular sexual partner
and knowledge and use of birth control methods have a large impact on
the revision process about the effectiveness of contraceptives.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Volume and page numbers
36 , 43 -82
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