Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries
is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities
and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct
an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited
expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation
methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support
(predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our
results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design.
Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a
larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves
accuracy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Volume and page numbers
26 , 479 -497
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