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Journal Article

Impact of population ageing on house prices

Authors

Publication date

Nov 2012

Summary

This study attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999–2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing – or more generally changes in age structure – is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

Published in

Scottish Journal of Political Economy

Volume and page numbers

59 , 523 -542

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2012.00593.x

ISSN

16

Subjects

Demography and Housing Market

Links

http://serlib0.essex.ac.uk/record=b1587548~S5

Notes

Albert Sloman Library Periodicals *restricted to Univ. Essex registered users*

#521054


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