Conference Paper Department for Work and Pensions
Moving from a dynamic cohort microsimulation model to a dynamic population microsimulation model: an incremental approach for a UK model of long-term care for older people
20 Sep 2009
Population ageing has important implications for the future costs and availability of formal and informal care services provided to older people, fuelling debate and suggestions for reforms in Long Term Care (LTC) policy. This paper describes an incremental approach to transform a dynamic cohort microsimulation model of LTC charges for older people in the UK (CARESIM) into a dynamic population microsimulation model. CARESIM simulates individuals’ liabilities for care charges in a base year and for future years. Financing potential LTC reforms via income tax can be analyzed for the base year. For future year, the sub-sample of people aged 65+ is aged but no new cohorts are added, causing a number of limitations in the range of possible analysis. For example, projections for 20 years’ time are valid only for people aged 85 and over. We propose and discuss a parsimonious incremental approach designed to overcome some of these limitations, and compare analyses using the updated version of CARESIM with the more limited analysis previously possible.
The work is part of a major programme of research on Modelling the Needs and Resources of Older People in the UK to 2030, which has been funded under the UK Research Councils’ ‘New Dynamics of Ageing’ research programme.