Conference Paper European Society for Population Economics Conference
Intergenerational Investment in Child Well-being and Human Capital
14 Jun 2001
Using data from the British Household Panel Study and the 1981 and 1991 UK Censuses this paper examines the impact of changes in local labour market conditions on individual poverty exits and entrances. Transitions out of poverty and transitions into poverty are estimated using discrete duration models that control for individual and family-level characteristics, duration effects and local labour market variables. After controlling for individual and family-level characteristics, probabilities of exiting poverty were found to be lower in labour markets which experienced an increase in employment in services between 1981 and 1991. Higher probabilities of exiting poverty were found in areas which experienced an increase in employment in retail and wholesale trade between 1981 and 1991 and in areas which experienced an increase in female labour force participation. Probabilities of entering poverty were found to be lower in areas which experienced increases in female employment, unskilled manual employment and manufacturing employment over the period 1981-1991. However probabilities of entering poverty were higher in areas which experienced an increase in employment in services over the period. Overall it is evident that relative changes in service sector employment have reinforced the continued economic vulnerability of poor people.