Skip to content

Journal Article

Egocentric economic voting and changes in party choice: Great Britain 1992-2001

Authors

Publication date

2005

Abstract

Theories of economic voting argue that people who are feeling well off and who are optimistic about the future are likely to vote for the incumbent government’s return to power, whereas those suffering financially and pessimistic about the future are not. Many British cross-sectional analyses of voting patterns have produced results consistent with this argument. Those findings have been challenged, however, on the grounds that the economic evaluations cannot be considered exogenous: economic evaluations at one election may be conditioned by party choice at a previous election. This argument is tested using panel survey data on egocentric economic evaluations and party choice for two electoral cycles in Great Britain (1992-97 and 1997-2001) and found valid. These data provide virtually no evidence to sustain the economic voting theory and instead support the endogeneity case.

Published in

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

Volume and page numbers

15 , 129 -144

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13689880500064692

ISSN

16

Subjects

Politics, Elections. Electoral Behaviour, and Economics

Links

University of Essex, Albert Sloman Library Periodicals *restricted to University of Essex registered users* - http://serlib0.essex.ac.uk/record=b1633267~S5

#512837


Research home

Research home

News

Latest findings, new research

Publications search

Search all research by subject and author

Podcasts

Researchers discuss their findings and what they mean for society

Projects

Background and context, methods and data, aims and outputs

Events

Conferences, seminars and workshops

Survey methodology

Specialist research, practice and study

Taking the long view

ISER's annual report

Themes

Key research themes and areas of interest