Skip to content

Journal Article

Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey

Authors

Publication date

2009

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of household subjective forecasts of personal finance. We use non-parametric directional analysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitative judgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are able to analyse a large number of individuals over a number of years. We also take into account individual characteristics such as gender, age, education and employment status when assessing their subjective forecasts. The paper extends the existing literature in two ways: the accuracy and usefulness of subjective forecasts, based on directional analysis, are assessed at the household level for the first time. Secondly, we adapt and extend the methods of directional analysis, which are applied to the household panel or longitudinal survey. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Published in

Journal of Forecasting

Volume

28 (8):667-680

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1114

Notes

Wiley search; Online in A/S except current year; Originally 'Early View' 2 Dec.2008; Wiley alert; Web of Knowledge alert; not held in Res Lib - bibliographic reference only


Related publications

  1. Forecasting science: studies from University of Bath in the area of forecasting science described

    Joshy Easaw and Saeed Heravi

#512275


Research home

Research home

News

Latest findings, new research

Publications search

Search all research by subject and author

Podcasts

Researchers discuss their findings and what they mean for society

Projects

Background and context, methods and data, aims and outputs

Events

Conferences, seminars and workshops

Survey methodology

Specialist research, practice and study

Taking the long view

ISER's annual report

Themes

Key research themes and areas of interest