Non-communicable disease and employment simulation combines expertise in agent-based, microsimulation and policy modelling, health modelling, and epidemiology, to develop a new agent-based approach to modelling interactions between health and employment.
The project focuses on mental health and chronic pain, two non-communicable diseases (NCD) widespread in the UK, which are associated with a significant cost to the society. There are causal links between mental health, chronic pain and employment: mental health issues reduce productivity, ambitions in job choice, and increase non-employment; and chronic pain reduces productivity and increases absenteeism and unemployment. At the same time, labour market events such as job displacement are associated with higher mortality rates and deterioration in health. These complex interactions and feedback loops between health and employment are not easily captured by standard econometric methods, and the compounding of inequalities in health and socio-economic status can lead to different conclusions when they are analysed jointly. With their focus on interaction effects, agent-based models are well suited for the task.
This project aims to understand the importance of interactions between NCD and employment and the incentives to invest in preventing and alleviating the diseases by the individuals, firms and the state. Understanding which groups are disproportionately affected by these diseases, how their labour market outcomes are affected, who bears the costs, and who could invest in decreasing prevalence of these NCDs, will help to identify new policies that can address inequalities and incidence of mental health issues and chronic pain.
Team members
Prof Matteo Richiardi
Dr Patryk Bronka
