Publication type
Research Paper
Series Number
18854
Series
IZA Discussion Papers
Authors
Publication date
August 1, 2026
Summary:
This paper examines whether the post-pandemic rise in health-related economic inactivity and benefit receipt in the United Kingdom was disproportionately concentrated among working-age adults classified as clinically vulnerable to COVID-19. Using longitudinal data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study covering 2009–2024, linked to the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study, we treat pre-existing clinical vulnerability as a marker of differential exposure to the health and behavioural consequences of the pandemic. We combine coarsened exact matching with pooled pre/post and two-way fixed-effects difference in-differences specifications; a more demanding triple-differences design is used as an exploratory robustness check. The main difference-in-differences estimates indicate that clinically vulnerable individuals were 1.3–2.1 percentage points more likely to become inactive because of long-term sickness after 2020. Relative to pre-pandemic rates of around 5–6 per cent, this corresponds to an increase of roughly 20–40 per cent. The triple differences estimates are positive but imprecisely estimated. We find no robust evidence of disproportionate increases in disability or incapacity benefit receipt. The results therefore suggest a persistent relative deterioration in labour-market participation among clinically vulnerable individuals, while the weaker relationship with benefit receipt is consistent with an important role for institutional processes and programme design.
ISSN
23659793
Subjects
Link
https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18854.html
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