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One in four UK jobs at risk, new predictions based on modelling alongside a survey of 250 leading economists

Coronavirus 2

A new ISER-led study of the economic impact of the Covid-19 lockdown, using a novel dynamic input-output model for the UK, alongside an expert survey of over 250 UK-based economists, finds that almost one quarter of all UK jobs - more than 7 million jobs - are at risk during lockdown, with losses of up to 80% of jobs in some sectors.

The model also allows to allocate the burden of the effect between the demand and supply side. Demand shocks originate from constraints preventing final consumers from physically visiting sellers, from reduction in the demand from importers, or difficulties in getting the goods and services through the border. Supply shocks, on the other hand, are due to social distancing and smart working measures reducing the output of intermediate goods and services, which producers sell to other producers.

The analysis by Professor Matteo Richiardi, with Patryk Bronka and Diego Collado, showed that 75% of the overall effect is attributable to demand constraints, and 25% to supply constraints.

Employment effects by macro-sectors, baseline scenario.

Read the full paper