7th Workshop on Subjective Expectations - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)

7th Workshop on Subjective Expectations, which will be held at Bocconi on June 12-13, 2023.

The workshop will feature 2 keynote lectures and 38 papers across presentation formats. Here is some useful information for presenters:

keynote talks will be 45 min for presentation plus 15 min for questions and discussion;
regular talks will be 25 min for presentation plus 10 min for questions and discussion;
flash talks will be 10 min for presentation plus 5 min for questions and discussion;
poster supports will be approximately 180 cm wide x 80 cm high.

PhD Mini CourseJune 12th

8:50-9:00AM	WELCOME
9:00-10:25AM	MODULE 1 – HOW TO WRITE BETTER SURVEY QUESTIONS ABOUT SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS SPEAKER: WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN University of Southern California MODERATOR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI Bocconi University This module will discuss how to design and evaluate expectations questions, covering the relevant survey design literature on (a) how to write questions, (b) how to use mental models to find out which questions to ask, (c) how to use cognitive interviews to find out if questions are understandable, and (d) how to run validation studies to identify the best questions.
10:25-10:45AM	BREAK
10:45AM-12:10PM	MODULE 2 – SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SPEAKER: ADELINE DELAVANDE University of Technology Sydney MODERATOR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI Bocconi University This module will provide an overview of elicitation methods in low-income contexts. The module will also cover expectations-based ‘perceived’ effects/returns and randomized information interventions that focus on understanding belief formation.
12:15-1:15PM	LUNCH
1:15-2:40PM	MODULE 3 – NARRATIVES, MENTAL MODELS, AND BELIEF FORMATION SPEAKER: CHRISTOPHER ROTH UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE MODERATOR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI Bocconi University This module will discuss the work on narratives and mental models in economics, with the goal of understanding the formation of subjective expectations.
2:40-3:05PM	BREAK
3:05-4:30AM	MODULE 4 – USING SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS IN STRUCTURAL MODELS SPEAKER: BASIT ZAFAR University of Michigan MODERATOR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI Bocconi University This module will cover how to use subjective expectations in choice models under uncertainty, both in static and dynamic settings. How to incorporate learning in these models will also be discussed. Applications will be related to human capital investments and labor markets.
4:30-4:50PM	BREAK
4:50-6:15PM	MODULE 5 – MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF ROUNDED AND IMPRECISE SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES SPEAKER: CHARLES F. MANSKI Northwestern University MODERATOR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI Bocconi University This module will cover issues related to measurement and analysis of subjective expectations, with a focus on rounded and interval probabilities. It will also discuss ideas on how to model behavior when people have imprecise probabilities.

Programme Day 1June 12th

8:45-9:00AM	WELCOME. OPENING WORDS BY DONATO MASCIANDARO Department of Economics and Director of BAFFI CAREFIN, Bocconi University TITO BOERI Department of Economics, Department Chair, Bocconi University, ADELINE DELAVANDE University of Technology Sydney, Department of Economics, and University of Essex, MISOC
9:00-10:15AM	FLASH SESSION I – EXPECTATIONS AND NEWS ABOUT LABOR MARKET AND FIRMS SESSION CHAIR: ADELINE DELAVANDE BELIEFS ABOUT MATERNAL LABOR SUPPLY TEODORA BONEVA (University of Bonn), with MARTA GOLIN (University of Zurich), KATJA KAUFMANN (Bayreuth University), and CHRISTOPHER RAUH (University of Cambridge) BIASED EXPECTATIONS AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN SURVEY DATA AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EAST-WEST WAGE GAP SUSANNE FORSTNER (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna), with ALMUT BALLEER (RWTH Aachen University), GEORG DUERNECKER (Goethe-University Frankfurt), and JOHANNES GOENSCH (Goethe-University Frankfurt) WORKERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF EARNINGS GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT RISK WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), with GIZEM KOSAR (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) LABOR MARKET NEWS AND EXPECTATIONS ABOUT JOBS & EARNINGS BERNHARD SCHMIDPETER (Johannes Kepler University Linz) FIRMS’ EXPECTATIONS AND NEWS: MICRO V MACRO MANUEL MENKHOFF (ifo Institute and LMU Munich), with BENJAMIN BORN (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management), ZENO ENDERS (Heidelberg University), GERNOT J. MÜLLER (University of Tübingen), and KNUT NIEMANN (University of Tübingen)
10:15-10:45AM	BREAK
10:45AM-12:30PM	REGULAR SESSION I – INFORMATION FRICTIONS, EXPECTATIONS, AND BEHAVIOR SESSION CHAIR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI SPOUSAL ERRORS IN SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS: EVIDENCE FROM A SURVEY OF SPOUSES GIZEM KOSAR (Federal Reserve of New York), with ADELINE DELAVANDE (University of Technology Sydney) and BASIT ZAFAR (University of Michigan) JOBSEEKERS’ BELIEFS ABOUT COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND (MIS)DIRECTED SEARCH LUKAS HENSEL (Peking University), with ROBERT GARLICK (Duke University), ANDREA KISS (Carnegie Mellon University), and KATE ORKIN (University of Oxford) MISATTRIBUTION AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT BELIEFS PREVENT LEARNING JESSICA B. HOEL (Colorado College), with HOPE MICHELSON (University of Illinois), BEN NORTON (Cornell University), and VICTOR MANYONG (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture
12:30-1:45PM	LUNCH
1:45-2:45PM	KEYNOTE I – BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL FORMATION OF EXPECTATIONS SPEAKER: CHARLES F. MANSKI Northwestern University MODERATOR: BASIT ZAFAR
2:45-3:00PM	BREAK
3:00-4:00AM	FLASH SESSION II – MEMORY, BELIEFS, AND FORECASTS ABOUT PRICES AND INFLATION SESSION CHAIR: ADELINE DELAVANDE STORIES, STATISTICS, AND MEMORY CHRISTOPHER ROTH (University of Cologne), with THOMAS GRAEBER (Harvard University) and FLORIAN ZIMMERMANN (University of Bonn) MEMORY & BELIEFS: EVIDENCE FROM THE FIELD MICHAEL WEBER (University of Chicago), with FRANCESCO D’ACUNTO (Georgetown University) ZERO LOWER BOUND ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DMITRIY SERGEYEV (Bocconi University), with YURIY GORODNICHENKO (University of California Berkeley LUMPY FORECASTS JAVIER TURE
4:00-4:30PM	BREAK
4:30-5:40PM	REGULAR SESSION II – FORECASTS AND THEIR RATIONALITY SESSION CHAIR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI THE COHERENCE SIDE OF RATIONALITY: RULES OF THUMB, NARROW BRACKETING, AND MANAGERIAL INCOHERENCE IN CORPORATE FORECASTS STEFANO ROSSI (Bocconi University), with PAMELA GIUSTINELLI (Bocconi University) BIASED SURVEYS LUCA GEMMI (HEC Lausanne), with ROSEN VALCHEV (Boston College)

Programme Day 2June 13th

9:00-10:45AM	REGULAR SESSION III – SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS, HETEROGENEITY, AND LIFECYCLE MODELS SESSION CHAIR: BASIT ZAFAR ESTIMATING INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES WHEN TOMORROW MATTERS ANGELA DENIS (Bank of Spain), with STEPHANE BONHOMME (University of Chicago) EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF COUNTERFACTUALS: HETEROGENEOUS SURVIVAL EXPECTATIONS IN A LIFE CYCLE MODEL JOCHEM DE BRESSER (Tilburg University) SUBJECTIVE EARNINGS RISK SØREN LETH-PETERSEN (University of Copenhagen), with ANDREW CAPLIN (New York University), VICTORIA GREGORY (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), EUNGIK LEE (New York University), and JOHAN SÆVERUD (University of Copenhagen)
10:45-11:15AM	BREAK
11:15-12:15AM	KEYNOTE II – MACRO THEORY WITH MEASURED EXPECTATIONS SPEAKER: MIRKO WIEDERHOLT Ludwig-Maximilians-University Münich MODERATOR: ADELINE DELAVANDE
12:15AM-1:30PM	LUNCH
1:30-3:15PM	REGULAR SESSION IV – RECENT NEW APPROACHES SESSION CHAIR: PAMELA GIUSTINELLI IDENTIFICATION OF EX ANTE RETURNS USING ELICITED CHOICE PROBABILITIES ROMUALD MEANGO (University of Oxford) NARRATIVES ABOUT THE MACROECONOMY JOHANNES WOHLFART (University of Copenhagen), with PETER ANDRE (Institute on Behavior & Inequality), Ingar Haaland (NHH Norwegian School of Economics), and Christopher Roth (University of Cologne) CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND LIKELIHOOD TERMS IN IPCC REPORTS: A SURVEY OF EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES WÄNDI BRUINE DE BRUIN (University of Southern California), with A. KAUSE (Leuphana University Lüneburg), J. PERSSON (Lund University), H. THORÉN (University of Helsinki), L. OLSSON (Lund University), A. WALLIN (Lund University), S. DESSAI (University of Leeds), N. VAREMAN (Lund University)
3:15-3:30PM	BREAK
3:30-4:15PM	FLASH SESSION III – EXPECTATIONS RELATED TO HUMAN CAPITAL SESSION CHAIR: BASIT ZAFAR WHAT JOBS COME TO MIND? STEREOTYPES ON FIELD OF STUDY JOHN J. CONLON (Harvard University), with DEV PATEL (Harvard University) KINSHIP, PARENTAL INVESTMENTS, AND CHILD VOCALIZATIONS ADELINE DELAVANDE (University of Technology Sydney), with ALEJANDRINA CRISTIA (Ecole Normale Superieure de Paris), PAULINE GROSJEAN (University New South Wales), SARAH WALKER (University of New South Wales) EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY IN RISK BELIEFS JASON T. KERWIN (University of Minnesota), with DIVYA PANDEY (University of Minnesota)
4:15-6:15PM	POSTER SESSION, WITH DRINKS & NIBBLES POSTERS DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION CHOICES: THE ROLE OF BELIEFS ABOUT PECUNIARY AND NONPECUNIARY OUTCOMES ALAITZ AYARZA-ASTIGARRAGA (European University Institute) BIASED WAGE EXPECTATIONS AND FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY MAXIMILIAN BLESCH (Humboldt University of Berlin), with PHILIPP EISENHAUER (Amazon), PETER HAAN (Free University of Berlin), BORYANA ILIEVA (Humboldt University of Berlin), ANNEKATRIN SCHRENKER (Free University of Berlin), and GEORG WEIZSACKER (Humboldt University of Berlin) CREDIT MARKET EXPERIENCES AND AGGREGATE EXPECTATIONS: EVIDENCE AND THEORY JOSEFINA CENZON (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) AUTOMATION AND PUBLIC POLICY PREFERENCES COLOMBE LADREIT (Bocconi University) INACCURACIES IN SUBJECTIVE JOB FINDING PROBABILITIES AND JOB SEARCH DECISIONS JIAYI LIN (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), with MICOL DE VERA (CEMFI) and JAVIER GARCIA- BRAZALES (Bocconi University and University of Exeter) THINKING ABOUT MACRO, DEEP OR SHALLOW? PIERFRANCESCO MEI (Harvard University), with LINXUAN WU (Harvard University) THE MEASUREMENT OF LABOR MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES IN CANADA CHEIKH A.M. NDIAYE (Laval University), with CHARLES BELLEMARE (Laval University) and LUC BISSONETTE (Laval University) ESTIMATING PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS WITH EXPECTATIONS DATA AGNES NORRIS-KEILLER (London School of Economics), with AUREO DE PAULA (University College London) and JOHN VAN REENEN (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) THATS WHAT SHE SAID: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION ON THE GENDER GAP IN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS LOVISA REICHE (University of Oxford) PARENT BELIEFS AND PARENT INVESTMENTS RACHEL YI TAN (University College London) PARENTAL BELIEFS, PERCEIVED HEALTH RISKS, AND TIME INVESTMENT IN CHILDREN: EVIDENCE FROM COVID-19 ALESSANDRO TOPPETA (University College London), with GABRIELLA CONTI (University College London) and MICHELE GIANNOLA (University of Naples Federico II) BANK BELIEFS AND FIRM LENDING: EVIDENCE FROM ITALIAN LOAN-LEVEL DATA JACOPO TOZZO (Bocconi University and Bank of Italy), with PAOLO FARRONI (Bocconi University and Bank of Italy) PENSION AND LONG-TERM CARE EXPECTATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY BRUNO VELTRI (Humboldt University of Berlin), with MAXIMILIAN BLESCH (Humboldt University of Berlin), PETER HAAN (Free University of Berlin), and GEORG WEIZSACKER (Humboldt University of Berlin) INFANT MORTALITY EXPECTATION AND FERTILITY CHOICE ALI VERGILI (University Technology Sydney), with ADELINE DELAVANDE (University Technology Sydney) and HANS-PETER KOHLER (University of Pennsylvania) ON THE DECISION-RELEVANCE OF SUBJECTIVE BELIEFS JEFFREY YANG (Harvard University)

Organizing Committee

ADELINE DELAVANDE, University of Technology Sydney
PAMELA GIUSTINELLI, Bocconi University
BASIT ZAFAR, University of Michigan