The low fertility in high-income countries has given rise to concern in the public and among politicians and social scientists. Indeed, there are some good arguments for thinking that low fertility perhaps is a ‘problem’ – in the sense that it might be reasonable with political interventions. However, other arguments for concern that have been presented, or at least hinted at, are less compelling. In this paper, we address five types of arguments for considering low fertility as a problem, and discuss how reasonable (and strong) they are and what kind of intervention that would make sense. We hope this will help structure future discussions. Our conclusion is that the individual- or family-level arguments are not very reasonable: The underlying hypotheses lack empirical backing, or the arguments do not even make good sense in principle. This is also the case for the indirect macro-level argument about societal implications of individual- or family-level effects. In contrast, it is obvious that the ageing and lower population growth resulting from low fertility may have adverse economic effects, although the evidence is far from consistent. The environment may also be affected, but more likely in a positive way. We end the discussion with an alternative perspective, where low fertility is considered as a possible result of something that itself is a ‘problem’, because of broadly adverse consequences.
Presented by:
Professor Øystein Kravdal - Centre for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health Department of Economics, University of Oslo
Date & time:
October 16, 2024 12:30 pm - October 16, 2024 1:30 pm
Venue:
ISER Large Seminar Room 2N2.4.16
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