Prevention policies operate through risk factors over decades, are rarely testable in randomised trials, and can widen or narrow health inequalities depending on how they are implemented. IMPACTNCD is an open-source, individual-level dynamic microsimulation built to appraise and evaluate such policies. It moves a synthetic population forward through time, tracking each person’s exposures (such as smoking, body mass index, blood pressure and physical activity), the chronic diseases they accumulate, their healthcare costs and their death. The model is calibrated to national and regional data. Results are disaggregated by area deprivation and ethnicity, so the model outputs the effect of a policy on health inequality and enables distributional cost-effectiveness analysis. The talk will outline how the model works and then show it in use: supplying the economic and equity analysis for England’s 2021 review of the NHS Health Check, which the government reported as a return of £2.93 for every £1 spent; projecting illness in England to 2040 with the Health Foundation (projections now open the 10-Year Health Plan and the Get Britain Working white paper); and estimating the effects of food policies, such as mandatory front-of-pack labelling in England and a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Germany.
Presented by:
Chris Kypridemos (University of Liverpool)
Date & time:
November 11, 2026 12:30 am - November 11, 2026 1:30 pm
Venue:
SSRC416 (2N2.4.16)
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