We examine the long-term effects of early childcare using administrative data from Barcelona. In oversubscribed public childcare centers, seats are allocated by lottery among applicants with identical priority scores, generating random variation in access. We exploit this design to estimate the causal effect of admission to childcare before age three on standardized test scores measured at age 12. We find that admission reduces scores by 0.08 standard deviations. Since not all admitted children enroll, this is an intention-to-treat estimate. These negative impacts vary by subject and age at entry: language penalties are largest for children admitted at the youngest age, while mathematics effects emerge at older ages. Effects are negative for both high- and low-education families, and in areas with both high and low private childcare availability. The fact that effects persist even in areas where the counterfactual is predominantly home-based parental care rather than private centers suggests that, for marginal applicants, early childcare displaced developmentally richer home environments without providing equivalent stimulation.
Presented by:
Gabriel Facchini (Royal Holloway, University of London)
Date & time:
April 29, 2026 12:30 pm - April 29, 2026 1:30 pm
Venue:
SSRC416 (2N2.4.16)
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