Busines cycle effects on labour force transitions for older people in Spain (joint with Sergi Jimenez-Martin and Judit Vall Castello)ISER Internal Seminars

This paper analyses the determinants of observed exits from employment for
people aged 45-60 years old in the context of the Spanish labour market in
1981-2006. The main aim of the paper is to identify the effect of the
business cycle on the timing and the permanent exit route out of the labor
We proceed in two steps. In the first step we study the determinants of exit
from employment. In the second we take into account the fact that there are
several competing exit routes (unemployment, disability or inactivity) and
estimate a competing risk model to evaluate how important are BC condition
in determining the respective exit probabilities. We make use of the
recently released Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales to estimate a discrete
time proportional hazard model incorporating unobserved heterogeneity. We
match this information with a number of variables constructed with
macroeconomic data derived from the Spanish National Institute of
Statistics to measure growth and employability performance of different
economic sectors and regions in Spain in order to capture the variation in
the business cycle between times, sectors and regions.

Presented by:

May Vall Castello Judit (ECASS visitor, Universiteit Maastricht Graduate School of Governance)

Date & time:

28 May 2008 12:00 pm - 27 May 2008 23:00 pm

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