In many countries, migration patterns are the key determinant of population change. Accurate estimates of place-to-place population migration flows are essential for making population policy estimates or projections. However, there are many difficulties inherent to estimating migration flows: for example, countries may under-report migration, use different migration definitions, or have different data-collection systems.
We report on work undertaken as part of the Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig) project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme. This work has extended the methodology developed in the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) project to provide harmonised migration estimates for the flows within the 32-country EU+ system, and flows into and out of Europe, by origin, destination, age and sex, from 2009 to 2019 with a statistical assessment of their uncertainty. Furthermore, the flows have been disaggregated into migrants born in a country in or outside the EU, to enhance their utility to research and policy-making, given the different demographic and migration behaviour of these two groups and the associated channels of migration.
The estimation utilises a hierarchical Bayesian approach based on the IMEM model. We use migration flow data collated by Eurostat, and incorporate covariate information and information on the effects of undercount, measurement and accuracy of data collection systems. We specify a migration model to relate the true unknown flows to the covariates and a measurement model to relate the observed flows to the true unknown flows, correcting for the inconsistencies and inaccuracies in the observed migration flows.
Presented by:
Professor Peter W Smith (University of Southampton)
Date & time:
8 Nov 2023 12:30 pm - 8 Nov 2023 13:30 pm
Venue:
Online. Please contact iserseminars@essex.ac.uk for the zoom link.
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