This paper examines the relationship between early childhood developmental difficulties and adolescent offending using linked administrative data from the Department for Education and the Ministry of Justice. I follow three cohorts of children assessed at age five and observe criminal outcomes between ages 11 and 17. Factor analysis of Early Years Foundation Stage Profile indicators identifies two domains of early difficulty: cognitive difficulties, capturing language, literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving challenges, and socio-emotional difficulties, reflecting emotional regulation, social interaction, and communication problems. Both domains predict adolescent offending, but through different mechanisms. Cognitive difficulties influence offending entirely through educational pathways, including attainment, absenteeism, and exclusions. By contrast, socio-emotional difficulties remain strongly associated with offending even after accounting for educational factors and are particularly linked to violent offences and repeat offending. These findings indicate that early socio-emotional development represents a distinct pathway into offending, highlighting the importance of targeted behavioural and emotional support alongside school-based interventions.
Presented by:
Paul Garcia (ISER, University of Essex)
Date & time:
January 28, 2026 12:30 pm - January 28, 2026 1:30 pm
Venue:
2N2.4.16 - ISER Seminar Room
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