The Long Term Effects of Attending an Elite School: Evidence from the UK is the first study to track the impact of selective school on a generation of children across their lives in the long term. Previous studies only account for levels of qualifications gained.
Dr Emilia Del Bono and Professor Damon Clark set out to examine the long-run impacts of attending a grammar school on continuing education, jobs, income and fertility.
Using the cohort study “Aberdeen Children in the 1950s” which followed 12,500 children born in Aberdeen from ante-natal care through to the age of 50, they were able to follow a generation of children in a district of state selective schooling.
The results support claims made by opponents of the grammar school system that performance in a single test at age 11 can determine the whole future for that child.
The research found that for girls, grammar school led to an average of almost one whole additional year of full-time education, increasing their chances of getting A’ levels by almost 25 per cent. Grammar school education led to a 20 per cent increase in gross income, a 10 per cent increase in wages and a significantly decreased fertility rate, by an average of 0.5 children per family.
Men who attended grammar school had more than one year additional full-time education, and doubled the probability of receiving a degree, but the data shows no bearing on their income, wages or fertility by the age of 50. This was possibly a result of the fact that by being selected into a grammar school some men pursued academic qualifications rather than gaining on-the-job experience through trade apprenticeships.
Dr Del Bono said:
“The debate about selective schooling systems continues to this day, particularly in the UK and USA. We don’t address selective versus comprehensive schooling in this research but we do look at the impact on life time outcomes for borderline students. This is first study of its kind to reveal the long-term impacts of success or failure at 11 plus examination.
Even though the UK has changed a lot since those children left school, particularly with the expansion of higher education, the results will be of interest to policy makers looking at the organization of school resources and to all those who are searching for ways to increase social mobility. Current statistics prove children from lower-income families are still struggling to reach the levels of achievement of their middle class peers.
One really positive result which will please social-mobility campaigners is the pronounced effect of continuing education on life time outcomes so current policies extending compulsory schooling to all children in the UK until the age of 18 should help to reduce the educational advantages enjoyed by grammar school students in the few areas that still operate the selective system.”
Read coverage of the research in The Sunday Telegraph