Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Fumagalli, Laura
Author-Name: Sala, Emanuela
Title: The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections
Abstract: Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.

Creation-Date: 20111109
Number: 2011-29
Publication-Status: published
File-URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/iser/2011-29.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2011-29